Anyone that gets so nervous that they cannot wait as long as another week or two with their stocks should reconsider their fortitude for investing. If you look at any of the huge moneymaking stock market stories over the last five years and you wonder – boy it was so easy – just invest $100 in Dell and take out $750,000 five years later – why couldn’t I have gotten in on that? The answer is you could have, but most people are too blind, too squeamish, too quick to panic, too quick to take short-term profits, too near-sighted to envision the true magnitude of the “down the ‘road” potential, too easily excited by “positive posts” on internet message boards, while at the same time too easily vexed by the “negative ones” to realize what they have in front of them until it’s gone.
There are no “sure things” in the stock market but some are closer than others. Many of the most successful investors wear “blinders”, earplugs, whatever it takes to remove themselves from the daily grind of pessimism and the weekly/monthly grind of volatile stock swings as they go by their instincts.
Study any of the most successful stocks over the last 3 years and chart what was being said about them “then” and how investors were reacting to those words “then” and compare that to where they are “now.” and you will see some startling contrasts. A perfect example is AOL. (Yes, we all realize that the Internet sector has been sagging as of late, but regardless of that, an investment in AOL 2-3 years ago would still be worth major bucks today after 6 stock splits.) Look at the history of AOL’s last 3 years and you will be amazed at the moments of pessimism and stock downturns.
Most of the daily followers of AOL that bought in 3 years ago were scared out 1 to 2 years ago. It sounds hard to believe but there were many times that you could have read AOL’s obituary. Articles in “The Street.Com’s” archives show countless prior news and commentaries on AOL at various news sites to understand and help gain the “confidence to relax.” The answer is that throughout any company’s path to success there are many moments of anxiety, moments of doubt, moments requiring great patience and moment’s that invoke.
Another great example is ENMD. Entremed is a small biotech company with huge potential. This small company out of Boston, consisting of only 100 employees holds in its hands the possible cures for cancer. With its four drugs, Endostatin, which just completed Phase I testing showing no toxicity and possible dormancy (the results still arent out), Angiostatin which just began Phase I testing, 2ME2, which also just began, and Thalidomide which is already on the market and some recent reports on it being used with low dose chemotherapy showing regression of tumors, will be presented at the 2000 ASCO conference. This is one of those companies when shares are trading in the 1000s pre-split everyone will look back a couple years from now to today when it is trading in the low 50s.
Last week tested many of the long-term investors when NASDAQ had its single biggest point loss ever.
“Murphy’s 3rd Corollary of Stock Investing” which states: “All stocks experience downturns just long enough to induce you to sell on the morning of the day that it rebounds.” And also “Murphy’s 2nd Postulate of psychological Market Parameters” (commonly referred to as M2PPMP) which indicates that: “For every piece of good news that invokes you to buy there will be two pieces of follow-up commentary that will convince you to sell too soon.” So who made out the best in AOL (even with its currently depressed price?) Certainly not the M2PPMP crowd, but the investors that wore their blinders.
But alas, in the end, everyone has to make their own decision based upon their own lives. But if a few weeks or a few downturns is all that it takes to scare you out of what may potentially be the Stock that will change your life then so be it, fall victim to M2PPMP and be content in the fact that you can still live vicariously through the rest of us willing to go the distance and reap the rewards.STAY STRONG and invest LONG.