Argentina For my case study on demographic transition Ive chosen the well-known country of Argentina, which is located in South America. I decided to conduct my study from 1936 to 1960. For this 25-year period I found all the statistical data which I need to actually complete population growth analysis. In the demographic transition model of Argentina we can see that the crude birth rate (CBR) is almost always double or higher then the crude death rate (CDR). This allows the natural rate of increase (NRI) to be higher than the CDR.
NRI reflects how fast population is growing. In the demographic transition model of Argentinas CBR per 1000 (blue line) is the highest line relative to the origin. We can see that the line stays very steady from 1936 to 1943, at about 22 to 23 live birth per thousand. In 1944 we see a gradual increases of live birth per thousand. By 1946 the CBR is at one of it highest points.
This line fluctuate from 24 to 25 per thousands range for approximately twelve years to 1956 until it gradual decrease to it original state, back to 22 per thousands. The ten to twelve years peak period of CBR helps to increases NRI for Argentina in the mid 40s and into the 50s. (We will see how this effects the NRI later) The CDR (pink line) is the lowest line in the model. In the beginning of the line (1936) we see the CDR start to rise and reach it highest point at 11 per thousand in 1938. From then on it stay steady at 10 per thousands for nine years.
After 1948 we can see the line slowly decreasing to 8 per thousand by 1960. This slow drop in CDR also effected the NRI (which we will see later). Both CBR and CDR effect how well a country like Argentina population is growing both factors relate to the natural rate of increase. This is the middle line in the model (yellow line). The NRI is determined by subtracting the CBR by the CDR. In the model Argentinas CBR is fairly high and CDR is less than half of it.
This allows the NRI line to stay between them. We can see from the model that the NRI starts to decrease from 1936 to 1938. This is happens because the CDR rises and the CBR remands steady. In 1938 the NRI reaches it lowest level at 11 per thousand. From that point on we see an increase of the NRI.
NRI increase because of the growth in CBR and the slow decrease in CDR. The NRI reaches it highest point of 16 per thousand in 1950 and from than on decrease gradually. It gradually decreases because both CBR and CDR are also decreasing. By looking at NRI we see point of high population increase was from 1944 to 1956 this time period is better known as the baby boom. From the model we see that Argentinas NRI is in the middle range of population growth from 12 to 16 per thousand, which is 1.2 to 1.6 percent increase per year. Form the demographic transition model of Argentina I see no discernable pattern.
But I do feel that by looking at the demographic transition model of Argentinas that it falls under the second stage of the model. This stage is where growth potential is realized and where CDR drops before CBR, which allow for rapid population growth. I also found it not to fit the pattern of the pioneer countries. The reason for this is that Argentina didnt keep fertility and the mortally level relatively low like the pioneers. We can see this by have the NRI over one percent. The demographic gap is the gap between the live birth rate and death rates in the demographic transition model.
The larger the gap between lines (providing CBR is high the CDR) will determine the growth rate of a country. In my case study of Argentina as a developing country it imply that the future growth will remain relatively the same. The reason for this is that even though the CDR is dropping, death rates cant fall forever and it will eventually level off. Another reason for growth remaining the same is that CBR will eventually lowers in the future and stay fairly steady. This is because the time of the baby boomer has pasted and Argentina will never see higher CBR than at that time. Also Argentina is becoming more of a developing country this interns means familys will have lesser children.
Demographic momentum is when population growth continues notwithstanding strict family planning programs because of a relatively high density of people in the childbearing years. This definition of demographic momentum tell us that the demographic gap this still growing even after family planning programs. This could be because of a drop in death. Another reason for why the gap is still increasing is because of the high amount of people in there childbearing years this increases the percentage of more children being born. The first of the four general condition which Demeny talk about is the fact that a developing countries has both mortality and fertility rates higher then the rates of the pioneer countries.
When I compared this condition I disagree with Demeny because I only found that fertility rates were higher rather than both. The second general condition is mortality decline do to medical technology not yet reaching developing countries. This does not apply to my model of Argentina because has we can see CDR decrease which mean that mortality is increasing. One factor, which I think, is do to medical technology. The third general condition, which Demeny talk about, is why fertility began to decline in Asia and Latin America in the 1960s. This factor I can see happening in the model of Argentina because we can see that CBR is slowing on the decline.
The forth and final general condition which Demeny talk about is the high rate of population growth generated by the demographic transition in its middle phase. This applies to Argentina because of the NRI being in the middle of the model. Also by looking in Appendix 1 we can see that in this twenty-five year period population growth has increased to a very large size.